Sunday, August 23, 2009

Uptrend Resumes - What does that mean?

IBD has changed the Market Outlook to Uptrend Resumes based on Friday's follow-through action.

It's important to take a moment and evaluate the past couple of weeks and the current market health.

The leading stocks that I follow are, for the most part, extremely extended. Many have more than doubled since their initial breakout, and are even further past their 200 day moving average. Most are trading at prices four times or greater their 52 week lows. The market could use a break to consolidate these gains.

However, I won't carry over this opinion to some speculation about the future action of the market. The current situation is factual - the market still has five distribution days but after last Monday's selloff the indices responded in nothing but strength.

Still, the quick turnaround has not presented many quality buying opportunities. On the contrary I'm left to consider some leaders that have found support at the 50dma - not the ideal setup but one can have some profitable trades here.

I'm going to do something I haven't done before and post here a quick evaluation of my watchlist:

  • (STEC) - This stock has found support near the 10wk moving average and could be on the way to forming a three weeks tight pattern. It's hard for me to ignore the selloff a couple weeks ago on the highest weekly volume ever, but equally hard to ignore the way this stock has led the market. Will continue watching.
  • (EJ) - In a position to purchase off the 50 dma - could be bought immediately as it's already had two high volume up days off this line. Lot's of overhead but the RS line looks great.
  • (FUQI) - Held the $22 buy point in Monday's big selloff and closed in the upper portion of the day's range. Since then volume has been quiet on up days. This stock looks like it has work to do yet, and could probably use a trip to the 50dma.
  • (PWRD) - Monday's selloff took it to the 10wma and since then the price has rebounded well, but no volume to confirm the move.
  • (BIDU) - Coming straight off the 50dma, but volume is absent.
  • (ARST) - Has formed a four weeks tight as volume dries up. This heartbreaker continues to tempt me. Earnings are 9/3 so I will watch but not buy.
  • (VIT) - Living on the 50day line - maybe lacking institutional sponsorship?
  • (UTA) - See (VIT)...
  • (GMCR) - Removed from the watchlist for now.

So that's it. I'll see how the market opens tomorrow and may take a position in EJ while keeping an eye on the rest.

No comments: