Thursday, July 3, 2008

Sell Rules

Now that I've been in cash for a couple of days, it's so hard to believe I held on to (SOL) for so long. The market is clearly broken for a few weeks now, I clearly should've just taken what profits I had left when it began correcting. It's so nice to watch now with nothing on the table, no stress with the ups and downs of the market. Of course I'm still a bit bruised from my mistakes, but I'll have years to make up for them.

Tonight I want to publish the sell rules I'll use. I'm going to list the defensive sell rules and the offensive sell rules. They are, like everything else in this venture, a work in progress - but I will follow them to the letter until I have a good reason to make a change. I'm going to also attempt to post them in short form on the sidebar of the blog website, for quick reference.

As I've stated, many of these rules are copied verbatim from a post made by williamsj55 on the investors.com forums. They are his interpretation of the CAN SLIM sell rules, and I could certainly rewrite them in my own words but I see no need. He got them from Bill O'Neil, who got them from many other traders and his own experience through the years. I've adjusted them as fits my style, but made no fundamental changes.

Defensive Sell Rules

  • Sell anytime a stock falls 7% below my purchase price. This is described in 'The Successful Investor' (also by Bill O'Neil) as the "3-to-1 profit and loss percentage plan." In short, it means that if I lose 7% on two trades for every one that I make 20% on, I can stay in the game with relatively small loss of capital until my pick percentage increases.
  • When one of the major indexes (Nasdaq, S&P 500, or the Dow) flashes 5 distribution days in 4 weeks, I will immediately sell any stocks up less than 20%. If I am holding any 'big winner' stocks (up more than 20%) I will put a 5% trailing stop order in for them.
  • The defensive sell rules trump all offensive sell rules.

Offensive Sell Rules

  • Take profits on a stock that increases 20-25% in more than three weeks. I will use a 5% trailing stop loss once a stock reaches a 20% increase from the proper buy point, in hopes this will minimize my downside and allow the upside if it wants to run. If the trailing stop is hurting more than helping I'll adjust my approach.
  • If the stock shoots up 20% from a proper buy point within 3 weeks, I will try to hold that stock for 8 weeks. I will place a stop at break-even to ensure I don't lose money, but unless the market enters a correction I will leave the stop there and evaluate the stock after three weeks.
  • I will sell if a stock makes a climax top. Warning signs for a climax top are: greatest weekly price spread, exhaustion gap, and break of the upper channel line. I'm not going to go into detail about these here.
  • I will sell if a stock slashes it's 50 dma on heavy volume and fails to rebound above it within a day or two. In most cases, my other sell rules would have me out of a stock before this could happen.

That's it for now. Pretty simple really, but should keep me out of trouble if I follow them. A cursory look at my past trades indicates strictly following these rules would have me in better shape than I am today.

-Geoff

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