Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Sell: (THOR)

DISCLAIMER - This post is being made several weeks after the actual date I sold the stock


Today I followed my new rules and sold out of (THOR) for just over a 2% gain. With the backdrop of the current market (in other words, lack of leadership and no lack of failed breakouts) I didn't need to see any more than five distribution days on the NYSE indices to get me out. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and there will be much better opportunities ahead.

I began my investing career in a very challenging environment, and the difficulty it's given my over the past year and a half should serve me well over time. I've seen the bad, so I expect I'll recognize the good. I haven't gotten away with any bad decisions - they've all burned me so I didn't make habits of them.

I actually consider this short rally my most successful stretch investing - and I lost money during it. What made it successful though was a few things:
  • I entered the market slowly and deliberately
  • I bought only a few high quality stocks from leading groups with great prospects
  • I kept a tight stop on my positions, so my risk exposure was low, and so were my eventual losses
  • I stuck to my rules and sold out when the distribution days mounted
Because I believe in the rules (they've worked for many investors) I know measure my success or failure based on how closely I've followed them - as well as the results they produced. In this case the system allowed me to dip my toe in the water, and then when I found it was still too cold to back out with little damage.

I'm also encouraged still by the new approach to the break-away gap up on earnings method. I've watched a number of stocks that fit this model and without question will look to buy this type of breakout in the next rally. There's always another.

One final point - other areas of my life, both professional and personal, had greatly increased my overall stress level. That is as good a reason as any to step away from the market, and it's why I haven't kept up with this blog nearly as frequently of late. It takes a clear, unemotional approach to do well in the market, and when I'm unable to attain for some reason that I believe it's better to just cash out and wait until my head is level again.

-Geoff

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